FILE: The San Joaquin River in Fresno, Calif.(Vincent Romero /Getty Images)

Just 5% of California’s water supply from the State Water Project is slated to be distributed among the state’s farms, municipalities and residential communities in 2025, the California Department of Water Resources announced Monday. The forecast — which is based on reservoir storage and conservative rainfall estimations — is even lower than last year’s 10% initial allocation, and dry, hot weather patterns are likely to blame. 

“Based on long-range forecasts and the possibility of a La Nina year, the State Water Project is planning for a dry 2025 punctuated by extreme storms like we’ve seen in late November,” said DWR Director Karla Nemeth in the release. “We need to prepare for any scenario, and this early in the season we need to take a conservative approach to managing our water supply.”

Operated by the DWR, the State Water Project provides water for 29 agencies that serve 27 million Californians, 750,000 acres of farmland and businesses throughout the region. For the past two decades, 34% of water has been allocated for farms, while the remaining 66% has been reserved for industrial, residential and municipal purposes.

According to Nemeth, record-breaking summer heat and scorching October temperatures led to this conservative estimation. However, the initial December forecast did not take into account any of the storms that brought heavy wind and rain to the region in late November, meaning water allocations could rise in the coming months. For instance, last year’s initial water allocation was just 10%, the release continued, but rose to 40% by the end of the season. 

Regardless, historical data from 1996 to 2025 shows that water allocations have become tighter and tighter over the past 15 years, and only started dropping to 5% in 2010. Previously, allocations often hovered between 15% and 75% — but officials believe that 2025’s conservative number could still change. 

“Our wettest three months are traditionally December, January and February,” Ryan Endean, a DWR spokesperson, told SFGATE. “We did see several strong storms in late November that were not accounted for in this forecast, however California has since returned to dry and warm conditions with continued dry conditions in the short-range forecast.” 

Updated allocations will take these weather patterns into account, the release continued, along with other variables.